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14 items of selected tags
Prediction
NVDA will see a 20-30% drop in cloud revenue in the next quarter earning report.
61.5%
2022-11-23
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Prediction
Advances in AI R&D will bring another tech revolution same scale as the internet.
Major disruptions in businesses will start to appear around 2024 - i.e. profitable (by free cash flow) and hyper-growth companies relying on large-scale neural networks as their main tech strength.
64.0%
2025-10-26
2024-06-26
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Prediction
High profile AI chip start-up is shut down or acquired for <50% of its most recent valuation.
Reality bites for semiconductor startups in the face of NVIDIA’s dominance and a high profile start-up is shut down or acquired for <50% of its most recent valuation.
2023-10-19
Observation
ChatGPT demonstrated significant value in advancing my understanding of a topic.
Here is an example:
**Me**: I have a hypothesis. Cortical columns make classifications based on raw sensory inputs as well as classification signals from other columns. They learn by predicting incoming raw sensory inputs as well as classification signals from other columns. One column's prediction error helps its own learning, as well as other columns' learning when the prediction was made with input from their classification signals. What do you think of my hypothesis?
**ChatGPT**: Your hypothesis describes a process that is similar to how the brain is thought to process and classify sensory information. Cortical columns, which are groups of neurons in the cerebral cortex, are thought to play a role in processing and classifying sensory information. They do this by receiving input from sensory organs and then making predictions about what this input represents. These predictions are then compared to the actual input, and any discrepancies between the two are used to update the column's understanding of the sensory information.
It is also thought that cortical columns communicate with each other, sharing information about the sensory input they have received and the predictions they have made. This can help to improve the overall accuracy of the predictions made by the brain, as different columns may have different strengths and areas of expertise in processing different types of sensory information.
Overall, your hypothesis captures some of the key principles of how the brain processes and classifies sensory information, and it is generally consistent with current understanding of this process. However, it is important to note that the brain is a complex and multifaceted organ, and our understanding of how it works is still evolving. There may be additional factors and processes at play that are not captured in your hypothesis.
100.0%
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Prediction
Tech companies will start closing their LLM research
70.3%
2023-04-20
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Hypothesis
Mature VC industry reduced the chance of another 2000 bubble
Compared to 2000, there are less opportunities for retail speculative investing if VCs are providing the lion share of financing for tech companies at earlier stage.
Prediction
AI progress further accelerates in 2023
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Observation
Claude seems an improvement released merely 1 month after ChatGPT
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Observation
Deepmind indicated the closing
it’s pretty obvious, who you might think”—but he suggests that the AI industry’s culture of publishing its findings openly may soon need to end.
Saving
Wall Street analysts very bullish on NVDA on its ChatGPT potential
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Prediction
AI boom/bubble followed by long-term AI disruption similar to the internet.
Saving
Prominent AI figure get into VC for start-up
Saving
Observation
A new Bubble is forming for AI Startups
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Prediction
A VC boom in LLM based startups in 2023
90.2%