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Everything relevant to the thought... If their price is shooting up here it's shooting up elsewhere too. In Europe for example. https://t.co/f6ov0RhQB1 This means we can't blame inflation entirely on Congress or the Fed. If we'd gotten less stimulus, strong demand from other countries would still be making this stuff more expensive. ...
... The same is true of gasoline, which is also shooting up in price. Another implication is that inflation is likely to moderate over the next couple of years. Once a household has bought a dishwasher or a couch, they probably won't buy another one for several years. ...
... It takes a year or two to spin up the capacity, but it's not rocket science. These are also largely global industries, so they won't be constrained by US labor supply. ...
... Once they've adjusted to this demand shock, we should start to see demand trending back down. It might take another year or two, especially for car companies waiting for computer chips. But they'll get there. And when they do we should see durables prices start to trend back down again. ...
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... 4) The above rules are somewhat different for A.I. startups. There will be a FOMO race for top A.I. startups. I'm already seeing it. THAT said, if you are A.I. and profitable, you will demand double the valuation instantly. Nothing beats controlling your own destiny. ...
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... Startup valuations are really coming down hard: - $10.3m ARR after 3 years raising at $50m with 2X preference - $5.1m ARR with a 3 month CAC payback growing at 3X raising at $30m post-money ...
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... When the central bank makes interest rates artificially low, it makes capital investment cheap and skews the economy toward capital intensive sectors. But that cheap credit hasn’t actually created any real resources, so you end up with increased spending on both capital and consumer goods. ...
... As a result, inflation starts to inch up, and central banks are forced to raise interest rates to cool things off. So far this is an entirely conventional account of how business cycles work. But now things get weird. ...
... There was arguably over investment in residential home construction. In 2006 and 2007 the home building industry was contracting while other industries were still growing. But in mid 2008, the situation changed. ...
... I don’t see why anyone would consider this kind of mass unemployment necessary or how it set us up for stronger growth later. ...
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... The use of "owner's equivalent rent" to measure housing costs is easily the CPI component that gets the most attention from skeptics of official inflation statistics. ...
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... But it isn't 3/ For the most part, taming inflation is now up to the Fed, and there's no hint that this administration (unlike Trump's!) will try to deter the Fed from raising rates if it chooses. ...
... The pundit response here seems wildly disproportionate to the policy reality 6/ I mean, aren't we at least curious about what's happening here? 7/ https://t.co/6omdPfhZQi ...
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... We've also made a small amount syndicating content to @Slate Prior to launching Full Stack Economics, I did some media consulting work for @shortwave, an email startup run by my brother, and earned $2,400. I offered to do this work for free but he said it was better to pay for legal reasons. ...
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... The only other company with a commitment to AI at a similar level was FB. Its pivot to Metaverse means that AI will not be (and probably never has been) its core strategy. Microsoft is never about cutting-edge innovation. Apple has never obtained a deep understanding of AI. ...
... Amazon is too pragmatic and revenue-driven for making AI it's core. ...
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... Unlike the Internet era, AI R&D requires much larger capital expenditures. This gives tech giants an advantage. ...
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... thanks to the inflow of investment, as during the internet bubble. ...
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... Looking at society as a gene pool that compete with other gene pools, the inner structure/stratification/diversity of the gene pool can be better understood and this can probably be done easily with some math model and computer simulation. ...
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... History started when human species began to dominate the ecologic environment and started to compete for survival as social groups, it will end when the survival competition between social groups ends. ...
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... Major disruptions in businesses will start to appear around 2024 - i.e. profitable (by free cash flow) and hyper-growth companies relying on large-scale neural networks as their main tech strength. ...
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