Everything net
Everything relevant to the thought
... Over the years I’ve tried several times to find a version of Austrian business cycle theory I found plausible and I’ve always come away scratching my head. Thread… Here’s my basic understanding of the model: the economy has some industries that are capital intensive and others that are not. ...
... When the central bank makes interest rates artificially low, it makes capital investment cheap and skews the economy toward capital intensive sectors. But that cheap credit hasn’t actually created any real resources, so you end up with increased spending on both capital and consumer goods. ...
... In the Austrian theory, a recession is a process of resource re-allocation from capital-intensive to capital-light industries. Society needs to produce fewer factories and machine tools and more beer and pairs of pants (or whatever). ...
... There was arguably over investment in residential home construction. In 2006 and 2007 the home building industry was contracting while other industries were still growing. But in mid 2008, the situation changed. ...
... Instead of re-allocating workers and other resources from home building to other sectors, you suddenly had almost every industry laying off workers—even ones that were not capital intensive and did not see strong growth in the 2000s. ...
... The central question of macroeconomics is explaining why economies sometimes have periods of elevated unemployment, where not just one industry shrinks but almost all of them do at once. ...
... If that were true, then 2009 would have been a time when low-capital industries were aggressively hiring laid off construction workers. That did not happen on any significant scale. Even industries far from housing laid off workers or at least froze hiring in late 2008 and 2009. ...
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... We find that all three theories specifically relate conscious function to some aspect of domain-general intelligence in humans. ...
... With this insight, we turn to the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and find that, while still far from demonstrating general intelligence, many state-of-the-art deep learning methods have begun to incorporate key aspects of each of the three functional theories. ...
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... These are also largely global industries, so they won't be constrained by US labor supply. As @DavidBeckworth has argued, there's no reason to think anything has fundamentally changed about the deflationary nature of durable goods industries. ...
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... Our subscription revenues aren't yet close replacing my Ars salary. My wife earns enough as a physician that I can take a big pay cut without a big financial hardship for our family. I'm very lucky. ...
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... If I'm reading the numbers right, around 800K bitcoins mined in 2021; at $50K each, that's around 0.2% of US GDP 5/ By contrast, residential investment peaked at almost 7% of GDP and fell by more than 4% 6/ https://t.co/PDSNM4BV7l And there surely isn't enough leveraged buying of crypto to create 2008 ...
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... Deepmind focuses on general learning faculties. In contrast Open AI focus on understanding (or the appearance of it depending on how you define "understand".) ...
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... Unlike the Internet era, AI R&D requires much larger capital expenditures. This gives tech giants an advantage. ...
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... Compared to 2000, there are less opportunities for retail speculative investing if VCs are providing the lion share of financing for tech companies at earlier stage. ...
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... The only other company with a commitment to AI at a similar level was FB. Its pivot to Metaverse means that AI will not be (and probably never has been) its core strategy. Microsoft is never about cutting-edge innovation. Apple has never obtained a deep understanding of AI. ...
... Amazon is too pragmatic and revenue-driven for making AI it's core. ...
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... thanks to the inflow of investment, as during the internet bubble. ...
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... This might greatly improve AI's linguistic faculties. ...
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