Everything net
Everything relevant to the thought
... Yes, I know the HODLers see it as a buying opportunity, and they could be right — not doing price predictions, just trying to think this through 1/ First: crypto faithful comparing this to "crypto winter" of 2017-18, which was comparable in percentage terms. ...
... . $1.5 trillion is about 7% of US GDP, and many of the losses falling on residents of other countries 3/ For comparison, post-2006 housing bust wiped out wealth = ~60 percent of US GDP 4/ https://t.co/2lYIqfPSt9 Also, coin mining, although environmentally destructive and a big stress on some national ...
... If I'm reading the numbers right, around 800K bitcoins mined in 2021; at $50K each, that's around 0.2% of US GDP 5/ By contrast, residential investment peaked at almost 7% of GDP and fell by more than 4% 6/ https://t.co/PDSNM4BV7l And there surely isn't enough leveraged buying of crypto to create 2008 ...
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... One use of Twitter: to post background information that I may use in columns and newsletters. So, a bit about market expectations of inflation. Right now, the yield on one-year inflation-protected Treasuries is -3.2% 1/ https://t.co/fl2zU5H36X The one-year rate on ordinary Treasuries is 0.48%. ...
... But they may offer some evidence on whether a wage-price spiral is likely 5/ Other surveys, for example, of planned compensation also show no sign of a spiral; nor is there any indication of expectation-driven price or wage increases in the Fed's latest Beige Book 6/ https://t.co/wxyF4CUUab Again, ...
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... The authors here show that readiness to cooperate between individuals from different groups corresponds to the degree of cultural similarity between those groups. This is consistent with the theory of Cultural Group Selection as an explanation for the rise of human large-scale cooperation. ...
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... We do so by examining the cognitive abilities associated with three contemporary theories of conscious function: Global Workspace Theory (GWT), Information Generation Theory (IGT), and Attention Schema Theory (AST). ...
... With this insight, we turn to the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and find that, while still far from demonstrating general intelligence, many state-of-the-art deep learning methods have begun to incorporate key aspects of each of the three functional theories. ...
... Given this apparent trend, we use the motivating example of mental time travel in humans to propose ways in which insights from each of the three theories may be combined into a unified model. ...
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... Thread… Here’s my basic understanding of the model: the economy has some industries that are capital intensive and others that are not. When the central bank makes interest rates artificially low, it makes capital investment cheap and skews the economy toward capital intensive sectors. ...
... There was arguably over investment in residential home construction. In 2006 and 2007 the home building industry was contracting while other industries were still growing. But in mid 2008, the situation changed. ...
... Instead of re-allocating workers and other resources from home building to other sectors, you suddenly had almost every industry laying off workers—even ones that were not capital intensive and did not see strong growth in the 2000s. ...
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... This might be the single most important chart for understanding the current inflation situation. For 25 years prior to 2020, the prices of durable goods like cars, washing machines, and couches fell every single year. ...
... If we'd gotten less stimulus, strong demand from other countries would still be making this stuff more expensive. The same is true of gasoline, which is also shooting up in price. Another implication is that inflation is likely to moderate over the next couple of years. ...
... Spending on durables can't keep growing at this pace. https://t.co/1ezz6V9lAU On the other hand, companies that make durable goods know how to make more of them! It takes a year or two to spin up the capacity, but it's not rocket science. ...
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... For teachers who don't understand Asian heritage languages, how to encourage children's multilingual development in the classroom? ...
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... This @JosephPolitano writeup is invaluable for understanding how this works. https://t.co/mmlaHCOVYW https://t.co/xtCyVhGzZl The use of OER to measure housing costs strikes a lot of people as goofy when they first hear about it. ...
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... It's hard to imagine higher-level cognitive faculty without some form of hierarchical information processing. ATB proposed that such a hierarchy corresponds to the hierarchy of objects in the real world. This might be a bit too speculative. Columns learn from prediction errors. ...
... They can predict raw sensory inputs; they can also predict signals by other columns produced from sensory inputs. Thus, learning can happen when there are raw sensory input prediction errors as well as when there are other column signal prediction errors. ...
... Learning in columns can easily be hierarchical - naturally, models (or knowledge) learned from them are hierarchical. That being said, there is no reason to believe that the hierarchy is a neat pyramid with clear-cut division between layers. ...
... Any column can learn from any other columns as long as their signals are useful. It's just that learning, and thus models, can happen orders away from raw input signals. ...
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... The brain predicts conceived "things" it will see and then "the sensory input" caused by them. Then the brain verifies or corrects the conceived things with the sensory input it actually receives. ...
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... **Hypothesis:** A conjecture that is generalized from observations (induction), or deducted from other hypotheses (deduction). Collectively, hypotheses constitute our model (or theory) of the world. A hypothesis, often together with other hypotheses, can produce predictions. ...
... It encompasses assumption, theory, putative knowledge, and the narrow sense of hypothesis. **Prediction:** A yet-to-be-made observation or (observational categorical per Quine). It's usually based on one or more hypotheses. The relationships between these categories of thoughts are fixed. ...
... This theory (or "hypothesis" as defined in itself) has [a philosophical basis](https://www.themind.net/hypotheses/M1qolEkbTje29ze62yEfQg): our knowledge of the world consists solely of prediction models. ...
... Out brain's intelligence is solely neurons trained to that predicts inputs working collectively. ...
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... Tom's thinking process and decision-making barely come into his consciousness, but the actual process can be organized into observation, hypothesis, and prediction. When he entered the room, he made the observation that something looks like a chair in the room. ...
... Then there is the hypothesis that the thing **is** a chair. Finally, he made the prediction that if he sits on it, he will be supported. ...
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... The controlled hallucination process is also a hypotheses-prediction-observation correction learning process. Brains can learn brand new concepts by generating new hypotheses about the world, making predictions about the sensory input, and correcting according to observation (actual sensory input) ...
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... High-level concepts and relationships between them exist linguistically in our brains, and cognitive functions based on these concepts and relationships are also encoded in sentences-like linguistic memories. Our brains can a) store models of the world in the sentences like linguistic memory. ...
... "Deers come to this spot when there is a drought." and b) Construct new knowledge/predictions by constructing new sentences following syntax rules E.g. "there is a drought now, if we go to this spot we might find deers." ...
... High-level human cognitive functions are the enterprise of our braining employing these two faculties. We don't have dedicated circuitries for each model expressed in linguistic memory, we just need the basic circuitries for language processing. ...
... Note that this hypothesis is different from linguistic determinism. ...
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... Because this self-supervised learning process mimics the brain's learning mechanism: make predictions and learn from prediction errors. ...
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