Everything net
Everything relevant to the thought
... Everyone "knows" that the 2007 housing boom was an unsustainable bubble. ...
... What's funny is that there are a bunch of countries that experienced similarly large housing booms in the 2000s, never had a comparable crash, and are now at even higher levels. https://t.co/EbuqEoSkxP https://t.co/KnigE1W2SJ To be fair, some countries, including Spain and Ireland, did have US-style ...
... boom and bust cycles around the same time as the US. ...
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... I'm reading @mattyglesias and thinking that bubble-phobia was a major factor behind the bad economic performance of the Bush and Obama years. https://t.co/p8zhQAIA2D https://t.co/xBi4kjjAXK In the early 2000s, people exaggerated the frothiness of the tech bubble and the harms from its crash. ...
... I suspect this fear of bubbles discouraged the Fed from supporting a rapid recovering in 2001-3. When a sluggish recovery finally started to gain steam in 2004-5, triggering a housing boom, people once again over-estimated its frothiness. ...
... This bubble frame caused the Fed to react too slowly to the onset of the Great Recession from December 2007 to September 2008. ...
... Then the idea that 1999 and 2006 were driven by unsustainable bubbles, as opposed to just being healthy economic booms, prevented people from recognizing how far the US economy was below potential from 2010 to 2015. ...
... People in the early 2010s assumed we had to live with a permanently shitty economy to avoid having more bubbles. But now we know that was wrong. The economy was still way below potential in 2015, and it's possible to recover rapidly from a recession with appropriate macro policy. ...
... I suspect that with better monetary policy 2006 probably could have been the middle of another 1990s-style boom rather than the end of a brief and weak recovery. ...
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... Thread: Let's talk about housing bubbles and the Eurozone. A lot of people think that the size of the American housing "bubble" in 2005 made a housing crash inevitable. ...
... But if you compare the US to peer nations this isn't so obvious. https://t.co/hGWTzTUZyN https://t.co/HsqHfSaqxU Canada, the UK, and France all had bigger housing booms than the US. Yet none of them experienced a crash anywhere near as large as ours. ...
... Here I've compared the US to four major Eurozone countries that had "bubbles" in the 2000s (Germany didn't). https://t.co/XauaEPtn54 This chart definitely complicates my argument, since Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands all experienced significant downturns in housing prices. ...
... But my claim wasn't that housing booms are never followed by crashes, only that it's far from inevitable. I also think this chart is consistent with the explanation I prefer—that causation mostly runs from bad macroeconomic policy to a housing crash, rather than the other way around. ...
... Italy had the smallest housing boom in the chart yet still suffered a major downturn in housing prices as tight money strangled its economy. So return to to the US: most people think the size of the housing bust meant the Fed was powerless to prevent the Great Recession. I think this is backwards. ...
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... important 2/ There's also a *possible* argument for temporary controls to break a wage-price spiral that is persisting despite a weak economy — although making that work is so hard that it would be a strategy of last resort 3/ But we don't have a weak economy; we have inflation because we have a booming ...
... economy, with supply chains having trouble keeping up with the boom in goods consumption. ...
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... I've been noting that we're currently seeing a surge in real house prices up to 2000s-bubble levels 1/ https://t.co/ukUAXznGpk But the 2000s bubble was geographically very uneven: prices surged in cities with strict zoning, but not in places where developers were free to sprawl => elastic housing ...
... The answer surely involves weak supply response 4/ https://t.co/pOeCZkz8rV And that in turn points to our old friend disrupted supply chains, which have made construction very expensive 5/ https://t.co/v93OvL4mVi Suggests that prices may eventually fall in smaller/less zoned cities, once houses can ...
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... Yes, I know the HODLers see it as a buying opportunity, and they could be right — not doing price predictions, just trying to think this through 1/ First: crypto faithful comparing this to "crypto winter" of 2017-18, which was comparable in percentage terms. ...
... If I'm reading the numbers right, around 800K bitcoins mined in 2021; at $50K each, that's around 0.2% of US GDP 5/ By contrast, residential investment peaked at almost 7% of GDP and fell by more than 4% 6/ https://t.co/PDSNM4BV7l And there surely isn't enough leveraged buying of crypto to create 2008 ...
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... With this insight, we turn to the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and find that, while still far from demonstrating general intelligence, many state-of-the-art deep learning methods have begun to incorporate key aspects of each of the three functional theories. ...
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... Unlike the Internet era, AI R&D requires much larger capital expenditures. This gives tech giants an advantage. ...
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... The only other company with a commitment to AI at a similar level was FB. Its pivot to Metaverse means that AI will not be (and probably never has been) its core strategy. Microsoft is never about cutting-edge innovation. Apple has never obtained a deep understanding of AI. ...
... Amazon is too pragmatic and revenue-driven for making AI it's core. ...
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... Major disruptions in businesses will start to appear around 2024 - i.e. profitable (by free cash flow) and hyper-growth companies relying on large-scale neural networks as their main tech strength. ...
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... This might greatly improve AI's linguistic faculties. ...
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... In contrast Open AI focus on understanding (or the appearance of it depending on how you define "understand".) ...
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