Everything net
Everything relevant to the thought
... I'm reading @mattyglesias and thinking that bubble-phobia was a major factor behind the bad economic performance of the Bush and Obama years. https://t.co/p8zhQAIA2D https://t.co/xBi4kjjAXK In the early 2000s, people exaggerated the frothiness of the tech bubble and the harms from its crash. ...
... I suspect this fear of bubbles discouraged the Fed from supporting a rapid recovering in 2001-3. When a sluggish recovery finally started to gain steam in 2004-5, triggering a housing boom, people once again over-estimated its frothiness. ...
... This bubble frame caused the Fed to react too slowly to the onset of the Great Recession from December 2007 to September 2008. ...
... Then the idea that 1999 and 2006 were driven by unsustainable bubbles, as opposed to just being healthy economic booms, prevented people from recognizing how far the US economy was below potential from 2010 to 2015. ...
... People in the early 2010s assumed we had to live with a permanently shitty economy to avoid having more bubbles. But now we know that was wrong. The economy was still way below potential in 2015, and it's possible to recover rapidly from a recession with appropriate macro policy. ...
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... When the central bank makes interest rates artificially low, it makes capital investment cheap and skews the economy toward capital intensive sectors. But that cheap credit hasn’t actually created any real resources, so you end up with increased spending on both capital and consumer goods. ...
... There was arguably over investment in residential home construction. In 2006 and 2007 the home building industry was contracting while other industries were still growing. But in mid 2008, the situation changed. ...
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... If I'm reading the numbers right, around 800K bitcoins mined in 2021; at $50K each, that's around 0.2% of US GDP 5/ By contrast, residential investment peaked at almost 7% of GDP and fell by more than 4% 6/ https://t.co/PDSNM4BV7l And there surely isn't enough leveraged buying of crypto to create 2008 ...
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... I've been noting that we're currently seeing a surge in real house prices up to 2000s-bubble levels 1/ https://t.co/ukUAXznGpk But the 2000s bubble was geographically very uneven: prices surged in cities with strict zoning, but not in places where developers were free to sprawl => elastic housing ...
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... Very unlike the 2000s bubble 1/ In the Naughties, prices soared in places like SF and LA with constrained housing supply, but not in sprawling metros where building more homes was relatively easy 2/ https://t.co/lgRjHUXnj2 Now even sprawling metros and smaller cities are seeing huge price runups 3/ ...
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... Everyone "knows" that the 2007 housing boom was an unsustainable bubble. ...
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... Thread: Let's talk about housing bubbles and the Eurozone. A lot of people think that the size of the American housing "bubble" in 2005 made a housing crash inevitable. ...
... Here I've compared the US to four major Eurozone countries that had "bubbles" in the 2000s (Germany didn't). https://t.co/XauaEPtn54 This chart definitely complicates my argument, since Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands all experienced significant downturns in housing prices. ...
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... Unlike the Internet era, AI R&D requires much larger capital expenditures. This gives tech giants an advantage. ...
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... Compared to 2000, there are less opportunities for retail speculative investing if VCs are providing the lion share of financing for tech companies at earlier stage. ...
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... The only other company with a commitment to AI at a similar level was FB. Its pivot to Metaverse means that AI will not be (and probably never has been) its core strategy. Microsoft is never about cutting-edge innovation. Apple has never obtained a deep understanding of AI. ...
... Amazon is too pragmatic and revenue-driven for making AI it's core. ...
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... This might greatly improve AI's linguistic faculties. ...
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