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Note

Kai Wang

Google and Nvidia are the only two big AI companies

The only other company with a commitment to AI at a similar level was FB. Its pivot to Metaverse means that AI will not be (and probably never has been) its core strategy. Microsoft is never about cutting-edge innovation. Apple has never obtained a deep understanding of AI. Amazon is too pragmatic and revenue-driven for making AI it's core.

Prediction

Nathan Benaich

A 10B parameter multimodal RL model is trained by DeepMind, an order of magnitude larger than Gato.

Deadline: 2023-10-19

Hypothesis

Kai Wang

Only large corporations can afford the capital required for AI revolution

Unlike the Internet era, AI R&D requires much larger capital expenditures. This gives tech giants an advantage.

Confidence: 79.0%

Hypothesis

Anil Seth

The brain is nothing but a prediction machine.

Suggested in [Being You](https://www.anilseth.com/being-you/), the perception process is a top-down "controlled hallucination." The brain predicts conceived "things" it will see and then "the sensory input" caused by them. Then the brain verifies or corrects the conceived things with the sensory input it actually receives.

Confidence: 61.0%

Prediction

Kai Wang

Advances in AI R&D will bring another tech revolution same scale as the internet.

Major disruptions in businesses will start to appear around 2024 - i.e. profitable (by free cash flow) and hyper-growth companies relying on large-scale neural networks as their main tech strength.

Likelihood: 64.0%

Deadline: 2025-10-26

After: 2024-06-26

Hypothesis

Kai Wang

To reach human-level intelligence, AI needs to be able to model the world in language rather than numeric parameters.

This is how humans reached this level of intelligence. In some sense, language and its syntax provides the programming language for brains and reduced the need for specialized neural circuitries. To reach the same level of intelligence without a vastly larger number of neural circuitries in artificial neuron networks, they need to be able to do the same thing. .