Everything net
Everything relevant to the thought
... Thread… Here’s my basic understanding of the model: the economy has some industries that are capital intensive and others that are not. When the central bank makes interest rates artificially low, it makes capital investment cheap and skews the economy toward capital intensive sectors. ...
... But that cheap credit hasn’t actually created any real resources, so you end up with increased spending on both capital and consumer goods. As a result, inflation starts to inch up, and central banks are forced to raise interest rates to cool things off. ...
... In the Austrian theory, a recession is a process of resource re-allocation from capital-intensive to capital-light industries. Society needs to produce fewer factories and machine tools and more beer and pairs of pants (or whatever). ...
... There was arguably over investment in residential home construction. In 2006 and 2007 the home building industry was contracting while other industries were still growing. But in mid 2008, the situation changed. ...
... Instead of re-allocating workers and other resources from home building to other sectors, you suddenly had almost every industry laying off workers—even ones that were not capital intensive and did not see strong growth in the 2000s. ...
... If that were true, then 2009 would have been a time when low-capital industries were aggressively hiring laid off construction workers. That did not happen on any significant scale. Even industries far from housing laid off workers or at least froze hiring in late 2008 and 2009. ...
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... With this insight, we turn to the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and find that, while still far from demonstrating general intelligence, many state-of-the-art deep learning methods have begun to incorporate key aspects of each of the three functional theories. ...
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... But bc crypto so much bigger now, so is size of capital loss — around $1.5 trillion v $500 billion 2/ https://t.co/Z4RYXUUxBc Still, it's a big world out there. $1.5 trillion is about 7% of US GDP, and many of the losses falling on residents of other countries 3/ For comparison, post-2006 housing bust ...
... If I'm reading the numbers right, around 800K bitcoins mined in 2021; at $50K each, that's around 0.2% of US GDP 5/ By contrast, residential investment peaked at almost 7% of GDP and fell by more than 4% 6/ https://t.co/PDSNM4BV7l And there surely isn't enough leveraged buying of crypto to create 2008 ...
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... As inflation persists, progressive politicians and the Biden administration have been condemning corporations for abusing their market power to raise prices — leading to a barrage of criticism from center-left economists and commentators. ...
... 2/ It would be cause for alarm if the Biden administration were planning to use attacks on corporate greed as its principal inflation-fighting strategy, or proposing to act irresponsibly. ...
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... People who graduate from college during a recession have lower wages a decade later. https://t.co/y3JaNHffTX During recessions governments and businesses often cut back on R&D. ...
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... I'm reading @mattyglesias and thinking that bubble-phobia was a major factor behind the bad economic performance of the Bush and Obama years. https://t.co/p8zhQAIA2D https://t.co/xBi4kjjAXK In the early 2000s, people exaggerated the frothiness of the tech bubble and the harms from its crash. ...
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... Major disruptions in businesses will start to appear around 2024 - i.e. profitable (by free cash flow) and hyper-growth companies relying on large-scale neural networks as their main tech strength. ...
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... The only other company with a commitment to AI at a similar level was FB. Its pivot to Metaverse means that AI will not be (and probably never has been) its core strategy. Microsoft is never about cutting-edge innovation. Apple has never obtained a deep understanding of AI. ...
... Amazon is too pragmatic and revenue-driven for making AI it's core. ...
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... This might greatly improve AI's linguistic faculties. ...
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... In contrast Open AI focus on understanding (or the appearance of it depending on how you define "understand".) ...
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... thanks to the inflow of investment, as during the internet bubble. ...
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