Everything net
Everything relevant to the thought
... Over the years I’ve tried several times to find a version of Austrian business cycle theory I found plausible and I’ve always come away scratching my head. Thread… Here’s my basic understanding of the model: the economy has some industries that are capital intensive and others that are not. ...
... So far this is an entirely conventional account of how business cycles work. But now things get weird. In the Austrian theory, a recession is a process of resource re-allocation from capital-intensive to capital-light industries. ...
... In 2006 and 2007 the home building industry was contracting while other industries were still growing. But in mid 2008, the situation changed. ...
... Instead of re-allocating workers and other resources from home building to other sectors, you suddenly had almost every industry laying off workers—even ones that were not capital intensive and did not see strong growth in the 2000s. ...
... The central question of macroeconomics is explaining why economies sometimes have periods of elevated unemployment, where not just one industry shrinks but almost all of them do at once. ...
... If that were true, then 2009 would have been a time when low-capital industries were aggressively hiring laid off construction workers. That did not happen on any significant scale. Even industries far from housing laid off workers or at least froze hiring in late 2008 and 2009. ...
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... I expect to do a bit more of this in 2022. Our subscription revenues aren't yet close replacing my Ars salary. My wife earns enough as a physician that I can take a big pay cut without a big financial hardship for our family. I'm very lucky. ...
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... These are also largely global industries, so they won't be constrained by US labor supply. As @DavidBeckworth has argued, there's no reason to think anything has fundamentally changed about the deflationary nature of durable goods industries. ...
... It might take another year or two, especially for car companies waiting for computer chips. But they'll get there. And when they do we should see durables prices start to trend back down again. A bunch more charts that explain the economy here. https://t.co/gtVBWwesGH ...
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... Wage and salary growth still running high, but not *that* high and pace seems to be slowing 1/ https://t.co/1a4025hPpu Couple this with expectations data: expected inflation up a lot for next year but not so much over next 5 years, suggesting consumers expect shock to be temporary 2/ https://t.co/JGj8kRXLhI ...
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... People who graduate from college during a recession have lower wages a decade later. https://t.co/y3JaNHffTX During recessions governments and businesses often cut back on R&D. ...
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... So people keep upping their bids. https://t.co/TfGPftqOoj I'm grateful to @PEWilliams_ for giving me the data to make this chart. ...
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... Major disruptions in businesses will start to appear around 2024 - i.e. profitable (by free cash flow) and hyper-growth companies relying on large-scale neural networks as their main tech strength. ...
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... [Data source](https://app.dealroom.co/transactions.rounds/f/growth\_stages/not\_mature/rounds/not\_GRANT\_SPAC%20PRIVATE%20PLACEMENT/tags/not\_outside%20tech/technologies/anyof\_artificial%20intelligence\_deep%20learning\_machine%20learning?showScale=absolute&showStats=YEAR&statsType=rounds) ...
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... If the self-understanding of our genetically programmed tendency to consume sugar and fat can help us manage those desires (with the help of technologies), then the self-understanding of our genetically programmed tendency for solidarity with "us" and adversary against "them" can help us manage that ...
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... Inspired by https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/lavrov-russia-diplomacy-ukraine/622075/?utm\_source=twitter&utm\_medium=social&utm\_campaign=share ...
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