Everything net
Everything relevant to the thought
... I think most Americans underestimate how much more dysfunctional our constitutional/political system could become. I think people mostly still think about the changes of the last 30 years in terms of the tone of political arguments getting nastier: annoying but ultimately not that important. ...
... But I think the governments ability to deal proactively with emerging problems has been degraded significantly. Many aspects of government are coasting along, overseen by agencies created between 1932 and 1972 but whose enabling legislation is increasingly out of date. ...
... There is a lot of room for this stuff to get much worse as congress continues ignoring festering problems and the executive is left with more and more de facto authority. ...
... Meanwhile I think we are going to continue to have more government shutdowns, 1/6 style chaos, etc. at some point this will coincide with an emergency and it will cause big problems. ...
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... In popular media, there is often a connection drawn between the advent of awareness in artificial agents and those same agents simultaneously achieving human or superhuman level intelligence. ...
... We find that all three theories specifically relate conscious function to some aspect of domain-general intelligence in humans. ...
... With this insight, we turn to the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and find that, while still far from demonstrating general intelligence, many state-of-the-art deep learning methods have begun to incorporate key aspects of each of the three functional theories. ...
... Given this apparent trend, we use the motivating example of mental time travel in humans to propose ways in which insights from each of the three theories may be combined into a unified model. ...
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... Thread… Here’s my basic understanding of the model: the economy has some industries that are capital intensive and others that are not. When the central bank makes interest rates artificially low, it makes capital investment cheap and skews the economy toward capital intensive sectors. ...
... Society needs to produce fewer factories and machine tools and more beer and pairs of pants (or whatever). ...
... Ok so let’s think about 2006 to 2009. The period through the end of 2007 arguably fits the austrian model. There was arguably over investment in residential home construction. In 2006 and 2007 the home building industry was contracting while other industries were still growing. ...
... Instead of re-allocating workers and other resources from home building to other sectors, you suddenly had almost every industry laying off workers—even ones that were not capital intensive and did not see strong growth in the 2000s. ...
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... Timing was fortuitously good — right after the Fed's sort-of pivot, which I was able to incorporate 1/ https://t.co/LwvwHJ6lgv I say sort-of pivot because while the Fed has stopped saying "transitory", it still seems to believe that much of the inflation we're currently experiencing will fade away without ...
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... So if Newt Gingrich forced the BLS to lower the CPI as a backdoor way of cutting Social Security payments, did he force the BEA to do the same thing so it wouldn't look suspicious? ...
... Personally I think the most likely story is that the BLS (slightly) changed its methodology in the 1990s because it thought the new methodology would more accurately capture the true inflation rate. ...
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... To start with the most obvious point: I think everyone would agree that a central bank can induce a recession (a decline of real output) if it tries hard enough. So imagine a sadistic central bank whose monetary policy is to target a 1 percent decline of real output each year. ...
... Even if that spending is restored later, that's several years when you don't have scientists and engineers working on important problems. Presumably that translates to lost inventions. ...
... https://t.co/oaOKpGkvvd I wonder if what happened was that economists originally meant “money is more neutral in the long run than Keynesians thought in the 1960s” and over time that context has been forgotten. I can also believe that money is more long-run neutral in high inflation environments. ...
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... One is that this isn't just an American problem. Durable goods are manufactured goods that mostly trade in global markets. If their price is shooting up here it's shooting up elsewhere too. ...
... If we'd gotten less stimulus, strong demand from other countries would still be making this stuff more expensive. The same is true of gasoline, which is also shooting up in price. Another implication is that inflation is likely to moderate over the next couple of years. ...
... Spending on durables can't keep growing at this pace. https://t.co/1ezz6V9lAU On the other hand, companies that make durable goods know how to make more of them! It takes a year or two to spin up the capacity, but it's not rocket science. ...
... As @DavidBeckworth has argued, there's no reason to think anything has fundamentally changed about the deflationary nature of durable goods industries. Once they've adjusted to this demand shock, we should start to see demand trending back down. ...
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... The goal: promote human understanding and innovation The means: 1\. Facilitate collaboration in thinking\, especially within spontaneously formed groups of people\. 2\. Facilitate distilling/transcending theories from atomic and spontaneously formed ideas within and between individuals\. ...
... The tools to achieve the above: 1\. Record thoughts\. 2\. Discovery of connected thoughts 3\. Visualization of networks of connected thoughts ...
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... The WWW connections work by pulling, one item can pull another one by having a hyperlink to it. But such a link is one-way: the reader of the linking item can easily go to the linked one but not the other way around. The mind net aim to make such links bi-directional. ...
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... More specifically, a network of ideas, thoughts, propositions, observations, things that live in our minds. Imagine we can connect things in our minds with things in other people's minds. ...
... As explained by the book "Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation", being able to make connections between ideas in different minds has been critical for human innovations. ...
... To date, such connections are made through reading publications, which are very formal, linearly structured, and unilateral, or through conversations, which are casual, divergent, and rarely structured. ...
... Imagine if we have a medium that is specifically designed to facilitate connections between ideas in different minds. This medium is structured but allows easy divergence, multilateral and asynchronous. ...
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... A system that lets users record their inquiry thoughts/ideas as observations, hypotheses, and predictions (OH&P) can provide a new mode of communication and collaboration between users - they can structurally connect their atomic OH&P directly to other users' OH&P. ...
... ([This is challenging](https://www.themind.net/observations/4fcVuFGoTEa43ez-xhSAsg) when thoughts/ideas are organized in the usual narrative structure, such as books, lectures, and talks). ...
... Such a system that connects atomic ideas and thoughts between users might achieve a **digitalized collective mind**. Digitalized mind means all ideas/thoughts are digitalized, collective meaning that these ideas/thoughts are contributed by multiple users and digitally connected to each other. ...
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... A system can be created to let users record their inquiry thoughts/ideas as observations, hypotheses, and predictions (OH&P). ...
... Thanks to the intrinsic structure, the system can digitalize these thoughts/ideas with auto connections and visualization, thus providing an automatic way to organize these thoughts/ideas. We can call this digitalized mind. ...
... The digitalized mind makes thoughts/ideas easier to consume, assess and generate new insights. ...
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... [The net view](https://www.themind.net/mapItems/Hypothesis/348E44hASHa7AvgODCLkyg/net/?netViewMode=FormalGraph) ...
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... There is a unique culture there with a hyperfocus on improving the thinking of each and every employee. ...
... On average, each employee spends at least 1-2 hours a day engaging in meta-thinking: reflecting on their own thinking as well as providing "radically transparent feedbacks" to other people's thinking (including external people visiting the company). ...
... The company provides a suite of software developed by a dedicated team (lead the formal lead of Waston from IBM) and an iPad to everyone just for the purpose of providing feedbacks on each other's thinking. ...
... Feedbacks are recorded real-time during meetings, so all participant can immediately review the feedbacks from their coworkers on how their thinking was during the meeting. ...
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... Collective digitalized mind, i.e. digitalized and connected thoughts/ideas from multiple users by itself, may not automatically achieve collective intelligence (the intelligent capabilities of solving problems collectively). ...
... If all thoughts and ideas are given equal weight and importance in the collective mind, it may be too swamped with them and fail to be coherent or useful. ...
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