Everything net
Everything relevant to the thought
... The authors here show that readiness to cooperate between individuals from different groups corresponds to the degree of cultural similarity between those groups. This is consistent with the theory of Cultural Group Selection as an explanation for the rise of human large-scale cooperation. ...
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... I'm reading @mattyglesias and thinking that bubble-phobia was a major factor behind the bad economic performance of the Bush and Obama years. https://t.co/p8zhQAIA2D https://t.co/xBi4kjjAXK In the early 2000s, people exaggerated the frothiness of the tech bubble and the harms from its crash. ...
... When a sluggish recovery finally started to gain steam in 2004-5, triggering a housing boom, people once again over-estimated its frothiness. This bubble frame caused the Fed to react too slowly to the onset of the Great Recession from December 2007 to September 2008. ...
... Then the idea that 1999 and 2006 were driven by unsustainable bubbles, as opposed to just being healthy economic booms, prevented people from recognizing how far the US economy was below potential from 2010 to 2015. ...
... People in the early 2010s assumed we had to live with a permanently shitty economy to avoid having more bubbles. But now we know that was wrong. The economy was still way below potential in 2015, and it's possible to recover rapidly from a recession with appropriate macro policy. ...
... I suspect that with better monetary policy 2006 probably could have been the middle of another 1990s-style boom rather than the end of a brief and weak recovery. ...
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... It feels like we are living through one of those kind of boring interregnum periods that will get short shrift in history textbooks. Like 1870-1900 in America or 100-150 in the Roman Empire. ...
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... In popular media, there is often a connection drawn between the advent of awareness in artificial agents and those same agents simultaneously achieving human or superhuman level intelligence. ...
... We find that all three theories specifically relate conscious function to some aspect of domain-general intelligence in humans. ...
... Given this apparent trend, we use the motivating example of mental time travel in humans to propose ways in which insights from each of the three theories may be combined into a unified model. ...
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... But that cheap credit hasn’t actually created any real resources, so you end up with increased spending on both capital and consumer goods. As a result, inflation starts to inch up, and central banks are forced to raise interest rates to cool things off. ...
... Society needs to produce fewer factories and machine tools and more beer and pairs of pants (or whatever). ...
... The period through the end of 2007 arguably fits the austrian model. There was arguably over investment in residential home construction. In 2006 and 2007 the home building industry was contracting while other industries were still growing. But in mid 2008, the situation changed. ...
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... To start with the most obvious point: I think everyone would agree that a central bank can induce a recession (a decline of real output) if it tries hard enough. So imagine a sadistic central bank whose monetary policy is to target a 1 percent decline of real output each year. ...
... People who graduate from college during a recession have lower wages a decade later. https://t.co/y3JaNHffTX During recessions governments and businesses often cut back on R&D. ...
... I can also believe that money is more long-run neutral in high inflation environments. ...
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... This @JosephPolitano writeup is invaluable for understanding how this works. https://t.co/mmlaHCOVYW https://t.co/xtCyVhGzZl The use of OER to measure housing costs strikes a lot of people as goofy when they first hear about it. ...
... You could survey homeowners on their mortgage payments, but then would you price it based on the mortgages people actually pay (which would include people who bought homes 20 years ago and therefore have tiny payments) or what they would pay if they bought their house now? ...
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... Once they've adjusted to this demand shock, we should start to see demand trending back down. It might take another year or two, especially for car companies waiting for computer chips. But they'll get there. And when they do we should see durables prices start to trend back down again. ...
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... Most of the analysis from Fukuyama's end of history would fall apart in a scenario in which state competition no longer exists. ...
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... The foundational idea of the End of History is inherited from Hegel - man's desire for recognition overriding other desires (mainly preservation) is something that transcends humans, something that proves man's freedom. ...
... This is an outdated view that sees humans as isolated individuals rather than members of social groups. This desire for recognition is probably a product of group competition and the recognition is about one's worth to the community in the context of fierce group competition between communities. ...
... Without a better understanding of this desire for recognition through the lens of group competition, ideas built on top of it are flaky as well. ...
... In *End of History,* Fukuyama took one paragraph to dismiss nationalism as an irrational one in contrast with the desire for recognition at the individual level. This distinction, as demonstrated above, is not well-founded. ...
... It's more evident that the majority of a social group is prone to manipulation, be it religion, ideologies, etc while liberal democracy is just one of them to support elected orligarchy. And that is supported by group competition theories. ...
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... As long as social groups still compete against each other, the political structure of those groups has to serve the function of competition. The so-called liberalism democracy as of now is still more like an oligarchy republic (as envisioned by the founding father). ...
... Will it morph into something different when social group competition completely disappears? I.e. when there is only one social group: the human race. Does that mean will can have a more radical democracy? ...
... Then the government (human or AI) will simply produce a policy that maximize utility for the entire human population. ...
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... Hegel declared this as the end of the history and went on to claim that liberal societies were free from contradiction and would therefore bring historical dialectic to a close. ...
... My critique: can we claim absolute self-consciousness when we still don't know how evolution history formed our biological nature? Is that something attainable only after theories like EDSC is in man's consciousness? ...
... As for "liberal societies free from contradiction", is the universal equality and the need for struggling in social group competition a contradiction? ...
... A liberal society can't just focus on its own principles of equal rights, it still has to serve another survival function: to compete with other social groups, liberal or not. Isn't that a contradiction? ...
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... Wars are unavoidable when there are states and competition between them. But without state competition, there is no guarantee that a unified global liberalism democracy community won't fall into a totalitarian regime. ...
... Most of the analysis from Fukuyama's end of history would fall apart in a scenario in which state competition no longer exists. ...
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... (Morality as manipulation) As a result, from Roman emperor to Crusade, Hitler, Stalin, the whole business of someone representing the moral truth is a history of moral tragedies. ...
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... In a despotism society, legitimacy is a harder problem since the elite needs to see the single despot as a legitimate ruler. In an oligarchy republic, one politician can exploit popular support to overcome other competitors, and in extremes become a despotist. ...
... The legitimacy problem - i.e. how the members of the society accept the political institution, is only a problem within the elites. For the non-elite population, such questions can be easily settled through political manipulation, like Cesar and Hitler. ...
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... [This theory](https://themind.net/references/qwoOUjrRSwaFZrY5G3vEEA), as pointed out by the paper, can have a great impact if widely understood by the general public > though their effect on human self-understanding and self-images, will eventually assist us in dealing with not only the traumas of ...
... conflicts between individuals and small groups but our bizarre international competitions and our stubbornness in seeking pleasures that threaten the long-term future of our planet as a human environment. ...
... More specifics of this theory [Dealing with social circumstances was the real challenge in human evolution](https://themind.net/references/gcEc3uCVR_ePqgoY_DPriA) [Why humans continue to live in groups](https://themind.net/references/GjY_8sBoS4CFHn23oOoz9g) Recent research on [Human large-scale cooperation ...
... as a product of competition between cultural groups](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-14416-8) The [inclusive fitness theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inclusive_fitness) provides the math formula regarding social behavior as a product of group selection. ...
... The multilevel selection theory provides a specific model for how group competition can be a selection force for gene evolution. ...
... [Other theories about human the evolution of human intelligence ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolution_of_human_intelligence) [Another Paper about EDSC](http://web.missouri.edu/~gearyd/Flinnetal2005.pdf) by Flinn, Geary and Ward, comprehensively presented supporting evidences for this theory. ...
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