Everything net
Everything relevant to the thought
... . $1.5 trillion is about 7% of US GDP, and many of the losses falling on residents of other countries 3/ For comparison, post-2006 housing bust wiped out wealth = ~60 percent of US GDP 4/ https://t.co/2lYIqfPSt9 Also, coin mining, although environmentally destructive and a big stress on some national ...
... If I'm reading the numbers right, around 800K bitcoins mined in 2021; at $50K each, that's around 0.2% of US GDP 5/ By contrast, residential investment peaked at almost 7% of GDP and fell by more than 4% 6/ https://t.co/PDSNM4BV7l And there surely isn't enough leveraged buying of crypto to create 2008 ...
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... I think most Americans underestimate how much more dysfunctional our constitutional/political system could become. I think people mostly still think about the changes of the last 30 years in terms of the tone of political arguments getting nastier: annoying but ultimately not that important. ...
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... But since 2011, manufacturing productivity has flat-lined, while other sectors continued improving. I wonder what explains this. https://t.co/4OQx10B56Y ...
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... Thread… Here’s my basic understanding of the model: the economy has some industries that are capital intensive and others that are not. When the central bank makes interest rates artificially low, it makes capital investment cheap and skews the economy toward capital intensive sectors. ...
... In 2006 and 2007 the home building industry was contracting while other industries were still growing. But in mid 2008, the situation changed. ...
... Instead of re-allocating workers and other resources from home building to other sectors, you suddenly had almost every industry laying off workers—even ones that were not capital intensive and did not see strong growth in the 2000s. ...
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... If we'd gotten less stimulus, strong demand from other countries would still be making this stuff more expensive. The same is true of gasoline, which is also shooting up in price. Another implication is that inflation is likely to moderate over the next couple of years. ...
... Spending on durables can't keep growing at this pace. https://t.co/1ezz6V9lAU On the other hand, companies that make durable goods know how to make more of them! It takes a year or two to spin up the capacity, but it's not rocket science. ...
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... When I share this image people sometimes suggest I'm cherry picking, since other major economies don't look like the ones for the UK, Canada and France here. ...
... I also think this chart is consistent with the explanation I prefer—that causation mostly runs from bad macroeconomic policy to a housing crash, rather than the other way around. ...
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How to make sure that the first AGI is minimum ly safe\, I\.e\. never hostile to human \(behavioral vise\) and
2\. How to make sure such an benevolent AGI can defeat all other forms of unsafe AGIs\, known or unknown\.
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... The only other company with a commitment to AI at a similar level was FB. Its pivot to Metaverse means that AI will not be (and probably never has been) its core strategy. Microsoft is never about cutting-edge innovation. Apple has never obtained a deep understanding of AI. ...
... Amazon is too pragmatic and revenue-driven for making AI it's core. ...
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... Unlike the Internet era, AI R&D requires much larger capital expenditures. This gives tech giants an advantage. ...
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... My critique: can we claim absolute self-consciousness when we still don't know how evolution history formed our biological nature? Is that something attainable only after theories like EDSC is in man's consciousness? ...
... A liberal society can't just focus on its own principles of equal rights, it still has to serve another survival function: to compete with other social groups, liberal or not. Isn't that a contradiction? ...
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... Super intelligence without AGI: collective intelligence consists of both human and artificial non-general intelligence. It is race between the technology development between AGI and that of super intelligence. ...
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... High-level concepts and relationships between them exist linguistically in our brains, and cognitive functions based on these concepts and relationships are also encoded in sentences-like linguistic memories. Our brains can a) store models of the world in the sentences like linguistic memory. ...
... High-level human cognitive functions are the enterprise of our braining employing these two faculties. We don't have dedicated circuitries for each model expressed in linguistic memory, we just need the basic circuitries for language processing. ...
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... As long as social groups still compete against each other, the political structure of those groups has to serve the function of competition. The so-called liberalism democracy as of now is still more like an oligarchy republic (as envisioned by the founding father). ...
... E.g. instead of voting for policies, each person simply submit their prioritization of her desires and needs. Then the government (human or AI) will simply produce a policy that maximize utility for the entire human population. ...
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