Everything net
Everything relevant to the thought
... The authors here show that readiness to cooperate between individuals from different groups corresponds to the degree of cultural similarity between those groups. This is consistent with the theory of Cultural Group Selection as an explanation for the rise of human large-scale cooperation. ...
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... Communicating via multiple attentions is more effective in getting your point across because it creates for a more memorable moment. For example, combining physical, auditory, and humorous delivery. ...
... [https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/how-emotionally-intelligent-people-use-send-a-bible-rule-to-become-remarkably-more-memorable.html](https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/how-emotionally-intelligent-people-use-send-a-bible-rule-to-become-remarkably-more-memorable.html) ...
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... In popular media, there is often a connection drawn between the advent of awareness in artificial agents and those same agents simultaneously achieving human or superhuman level intelligence. ...
... We find that all three theories specifically relate conscious function to some aspect of domain-general intelligence in humans. ...
... Given this apparent trend, we use the motivating example of mental time travel in humans to propose ways in which insights from each of the three theories may be combined into a unified model. ...
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... There's a widespread view in inflation hawk circles that the BLS came under political pressure (in the 1990s and maybe before) to modify the CPI to reduced the measured inflation rate and hence reduce how much the government would have to pay in Social Security benefits. ...
... The CPI, the one used for adjusting Social Security benefits, tends to come in higher than the PCE index. Right now, for example, PCE inflation is 5.7 percent while CPI inflation is 7 percent. ...
... So if Newt Gingrich forced the BLS to lower the CPI as a backdoor way of cutting Social Security payments, did he force the BEA to do the same thing so it wouldn't look suspicious? ...
... Personally I think the most likely story is that the BLS (slightly) changed its methodology in the 1990s because it thought the new methodology would more accurately capture the true inflation rate. ...
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... I'm reading @mattyglesias and thinking that bubble-phobia was a major factor behind the bad economic performance of the Bush and Obama years. https://t.co/p8zhQAIA2D https://t.co/xBi4kjjAXK In the early 2000s, people exaggerated the frothiness of the tech bubble and the harms from its crash. ...
... When a sluggish recovery finally started to gain steam in 2004-5, triggering a housing boom, people once again over-estimated its frothiness. This bubble frame caused the Fed to react too slowly to the onset of the Great Recession from December 2007 to September 2008. ...
... Then the idea that 1999 and 2006 were driven by unsustainable bubbles, as opposed to just being healthy economic booms, prevented people from recognizing how far the US economy was below potential from 2010 to 2015. ...
... People in the early 2010s assumed we had to live with a permanently shitty economy to avoid having more bubbles. But now we know that was wrong. The economy was still way below potential in 2015, and it's possible to recover rapidly from a recession with appropriate macro policy. ...
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... One use of Twitter: to post background information that I may use in columns and newsletters. So, a bit about market expectations of inflation. Right now, the yield on one-year inflation-protected Treasuries is -3.2% 1/ https://t.co/fl2zU5H36X The one-year rate on ordinary Treasuries is 0.48%. ...
... But they may offer some evidence on whether a wage-price spiral is likely 5/ Other surveys, for example, of planned compensation also show no sign of a spiral; nor is there any indication of expectation-driven price or wage increases in the Fed's latest Beige Book 6/ https://t.co/wxyF4CUUab Again, ...
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... I have no idea. https://t.co/kFojw7CxsT This chart debunks the widely-held belief that housing construction was out of control in 2005. Housing production was actually pretty normal! ...
... So people keep upping their bids. https://t.co/TfGPftqOoj I'm grateful to @PEWilliams_ for giving me the data to make this chart. ...
... In 2007, a weak fiscal and monetary response allowed spending to fall way below trend. Powell and Pelosi and Mnuchin and Biden were determined not to let that happen again in 2020. And they succeeded! https://t.co/7ZrJns0ors There are a bunch more charts here. ...
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... Thread: Let's talk about housing bubbles and the Eurozone. A lot of people think that the size of the American housing "bubble" in 2005 made a housing crash inevitable. ...
... When I share this image people sometimes suggest I'm cherry picking, since other major economies don't look like the ones for the UK, Canada and France here. ...
... I also think this chart is consistent with the explanation I prefer—that causation mostly runs from bad macroeconomic policy to a housing crash, rather than the other way around. ...
... So return to to the US: most people think the size of the housing bust meant the Fed was powerless to prevent the Great Recession. I think this is backwards. If the Fed had cut rates more aggressively in 2007 and early 2008, we would have had a much smaller housing downturn. ...
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... Group discussions, online communities, and coffee shop conversations are traditional ways for participants to exchange ideas. Ideas are usually freely bouncing around between participants. ...
... Ideas exchanged in such forms usually require a significant amount of later work (usually by a single individual) to be [organized into narrative structures](https://www.themind.net/observations/AfHZZXnNQmaVukmQ2I7EAw) that be easily consumed. ...
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... Group conversations, online communities, and coffee shop conversations have been great for exchanging ideas, but these forms usually lack organization and structure. ...
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... A system that lets users record their inquiry thoughts/ideas as observations, hypotheses, and predictions (OH&P) can provide a new mode of communication and collaboration between users - they can structurally connect their atomic OH&P directly to other users' OH&P. ...
... ([This is challenging](https://www.themind.net/observations/4fcVuFGoTEa43ez-xhSAsg) when thoughts/ideas are organized in the usual narrative structure, such as books, lectures, and talks). ...
... Such a system that connects atomic ideas and thoughts between users might achieve a **digitalized collective mind**. Digitalized mind means all ideas/thoughts are digitalized, collective meaning that these ideas/thoughts are contributed by multiple users and digitally connected to each other. ...
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... This [Twitter conversation](https://twitter.com/yudapearl/status/1495128028443074561?t=E66IfwHivO5BIu3qT1dEyg&s=19) showed how difficult to actually having a group discussion on an expansive topic. I believe that the mind net can organize such interaction of ideas much better. ...
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... More specifically, a network of ideas, thoughts, propositions, observations, things that live in our minds. Imagine we can connect things in our minds with things in other people's minds. ...
... As explained by the book "Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation", being able to make connections between ideas in different minds has been critical for human innovations. ...
... To date, such connections are made through reading publications, which are very formal, linearly structured, and unilateral, or through conversations, which are casual, divergent, and rarely structured. ...
... Imagine if we have a medium that is specifically designed to facilitate connections between ideas in different minds. This medium is structured but allows easy divergence, multilateral and asynchronous. ...
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... The brain uses a mental language to represent and organize complex ideas and concepts. This mental language is thought to be distinct from natural languages like English or Spanish, and it is believed to be the medium through which we think and process information. ...
... According to the LOTH, the structure and content of this mental language are shaped by the structure and content of the natural languages that we learn, but it is not identical to any one natural language. ...
... Instead, it is thought to be a universal language that is used by all humans to represent and process complex ideas. Link: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/language-thought/ ...
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... The cohesive quality or unity of a mind appears when we make an effort to organize our thoughts and ideas into a coherent bundle, for example, when we write books. This is one way to overcome [the bundle theory of personal identity.](https://www.themind.net/hypotheses/N67s-BZmSFiR0V0eHIgD-Q) ...
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... **Observation:** An observed empirical fact, indisputable for reasonable people. **Hypothesis:** A conjecture that is generalized from observations (induction), or deducted from other hypotheses (deduction). Collectively, hypotheses constitute our model (or theory) of the world. ...
... The relationships between these categories of thoughts are fixed. In another sentence, there is an algebra in these elements of thoughts. ...
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