Everything net
Everything relevant to the thought
... I have no idea. https://t.co/kFojw7CxsT This chart debunks the widely-held belief that housing construction was out of control in 2005. Housing production was actually pretty normal! ...
... What was exceptional was the deep post-2007 housing bust—driven I think by the mistaken belief there had been a big housing bubble. https://t.co/MEOt8eRT7J This chart helps to illustrate why home prices have risen so much in the last few years: the sticker price is at a record high, low interest rates ...
... So people keep upping their bids. https://t.co/TfGPftqOoj I'm grateful to @PEWilliams_ for giving me the data to make this chart. ...
... Powell and Pelosi and Mnuchin and Biden were determined not to let that happen again in 2020. And they succeeded! https://t.co/7ZrJns0ors There are a bunch more charts here. Check them out, and then subscribe to the newsletter! https://t.co/gtVBWwesGH ...
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... In popular media, there is often a connection drawn between the advent of awareness in artificial agents and those same agents simultaneously achieving human or superhuman level intelligence. ...
... We find that all three theories specifically relate conscious function to some aspect of domain-general intelligence in humans. ...
... Given this apparent trend, we use the motivating example of mental time travel in humans to propose ways in which insights from each of the three theories may be combined into a unified model. ...
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... Then in 2021 that suddenly and dramatically reversed. https://t.co/BTtqgHOKxB This has some important implications. One is that this isn't just an American problem. Durable goods are manufactured goods that mostly trade in global markets. ...
... Another implication is that inflation is likely to moderate over the next couple of years. Once a household has bought a dishwasher or a couch, they probably won't buy another one for several years. ...
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... I think most Americans underestimate how much more dysfunctional our constitutional/political system could become. I think people mostly still think about the changes of the last 30 years in terms of the tone of political arguments getting nastier: annoying but ultimately not that important. ...
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... Biden is definitely on track to be one of those presidents nobody remembers like Carter, taft, or Harrison. ...
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... A lot of people think that the size of the American housing "bubble" in 2005 made a housing crash inevitable. But if you compare the US to peer nations this isn't so obvious. https://t.co/hGWTzTUZyN https://t.co/HsqHfSaqxU Canada, the UK, and France all had bigger housing booms than the US. ...
... When I share this image people sometimes suggest I'm cherry picking, since other major economies don't look like the ones for the UK, Canada and France here. ...
... Here I've compared the US to four major Eurozone countries that had "bubbles" in the 2000s (Germany didn't). https://t.co/XauaEPtn54 This chart definitely complicates my argument, since Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands all experienced significant downturns in housing prices. ...
... So return to to the US: most people think the size of the housing bust meant the Fed was powerless to prevent the Great Recession. I think this is backwards. If the Fed had cut rates more aggressively in 2007 and early 2008, we would have had a much smaller housing downturn. ...
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... This @JosephPolitano writeup is invaluable for understanding how this works. https://t.co/mmlaHCOVYW https://t.co/xtCyVhGzZl The use of OER to measure housing costs strikes a lot of people as goofy when they first hear about it. ...
... You could survey homeowners on their mortgage payments, but then would you price it based on the mortgages people actually pay (which would include people who bought homes 20 years ago and therefore have tiny payments) or what they would pay if they bought their house now? ...
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... When it's more convenient to treat a system as if that it's decision process cannot be externalized (or predictable from such an externalization), this system possess the property of having a free will. ...
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... Thus there is adaptive pressure for religious belief or spirituality. ...
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... There were many examples of the impacts Darwinism made on societies. With a secular understanding of where the human species came from, humans became more accepting of human nature with religion fading further to the back seat. ...
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... It takes non-trivial effort and determination to organize ideas in a narrative way. ...
... Be it books, articles, or lectures, a lot fewer people can afford the energy and time to create them than the people who have ideas (and just publish them without much organization on micro-blogging platforms. ) But this is the most effective way to convey a group of ideas. ...
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... Although the definition of "hypothesis" is narrower in science - a hypothesis in science usually refers to a theory that explains **how** things work. Propositions such as "It's okay to eat bruised apple" or "Mr. Huckabee is a bad politician." are not regarded as hypotheses. ...
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